Calibrated sports probabilities for people who check the math — graded in public.

Every probability here is computed by our own engine, from event data rather than repackaged odds or someone else's projections. v2.0 makes soccer the core with per-league models refit weekly, and new simulators are validated in shadow before they count.

• It does not start from odds

  Most published probabilities are reverse-engineered from market prices. The engine never takes odds as an input; every number is computed from event data alone.

• Markets cannot contradict each other

  From v2.0, soccer result, totals, BTTS and margin all come off one scoreline distribution. Nothing is computed market by market, so two numbers cannot disagree.

• New models run in shadow first

  A new engine such as the shot-level simulation runs and is graded daily, but stays at weight 0 with no effect on screen until it beats the existing model.

• Probabilities are locked at publication

  The first value shown becomes the graded record. A later model change never rewrites a past prediction.

• It re-grades itself every morning

  Every finished game is scored and the calibration coefficients are refit. Losing predictions stay in the sample.

• Shadow Player Probabilities are validated too

  After v2.0, soccer anytime scorer, shot and shots-on-target props are also computed and graded daily on the shot-level simulator. They also run in shadow at weight 0 and do not appear until they beat the incumbent.

• No single signal can flip a call

  Injuries, form, xG, park and umpire adjustments are each capped at ±4-6% and thin samples are pulled toward the mean. An implausible live value is withheld rather than shown.